Simon Decision Making

Home [pic]http://jayhanson. us/america. htm [pic] Decision Making and Problem Solving by Herbert A. Simon and Associates Associates: George B. Dantzig, Robin Hogarth, Charles R. Piott, Howard Raiffa, Thomas C. Schelling, Kennth A. Shepsle, Richard Thaier, Amos Tversky, and Sidney Winter. Simon was educated in political science at the University of Chicago (B. A. , 1936, Ph. D. , 1943).He has held research and faculty positions at the University of California (Berkeley), Illinois Institute of Technology and since 1949, Carnegie Mellon University, where he is the Richard King Mellon University Professor of Computer Science and Psychology. In 1978, he received the Alfred Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences and in 1986 the National Medal of Science. Reprinted with permission from Research Briefings 1986: Report of the Research Briefing Panel on Decision Making and Problem Solving  © 1986 by the National Academy of Sciences. Published by National Academy Press, Washington, DC.Intr oduction The work of managers, of scientists, of engineers, of lawyers–the work that steers the course of society and its economic and governmental organizations–is largely work of making decisions and solving problems. It is work of choosing issues that require attention, setting goals, finding or designing suitable courses of action, and evaluating and choosing among alternative actions. The first three of these activities–fixing agendas, setting goals, and designing actions–are usually called problem solving; the last, evaluating and choosing, is usually called decision making.Nothing is more important for the well-being of society than that this work be performed effectively, that we address successfully the many problems requiring attention at the national level (the budget and trade deficits, AIDS, national security, the mitigation of earthquake damage), at the level of business organizations (product improvement, efficiency of production, choice of investments), and at the level of our individual lives (choosing a career or a school, buying a house).The abilities and skills that determine the quality of our decisions and problem solutions are stored not only in more than 200 million human heads, but also in tools and machines, and especially today in those machines we call computers. This fund of brains and its attendant machines form the basis of our American ingenuity, an ingenuity that has permitted U.S. society to reach remarkable levels of economic productivity. There are no more promising or important targets for basic scientific research than understanding how human minds, with and without the help of computers, solve problems and make decisions effectively, and improving our problem-solving and decision-making capabilities.In psychology, economics, mathematical statistics, operations research, political science, artificial intelligence, and cognitive science, major research gains have been made during the past half ce ntury in understanding problem solving and decision making. The progress already achieved holds forth the promise of exciting new advances that will contribute substantially to our nation's capacity for dealing intelligently with the range of issues, large and small, that confront us.Much of our existing knowledge about decision making and problem solving, derived from this research, has already been put to use in a wide variety of applications, including procedures used to assess drug safety, inventory control methods for industry, the new expert systems that embody artificial intelligence techniques, procedures for modeling energy and environmental systems, and analyses of the stabilizing or destabilizing effects of alternative defense strategies. Application of the new inventory control techniques, for example, has enabled American corporations to reduce their inventories by hundreds of millions of dollars since World War II without increasing the incidence of stockouts. ) Some o f the knowledge gained through the research describes the ways in which people actually go about making decisions and solving problems; some of it prescribes better methods, offering advice for the improvement of the process.Central to the body of prescriptive knowledge about decision making has been the theory of subjective expected utility (SEU), a sophisticated mathematical model of choice that lies at the foundation of most contemporary economics, theoretical statistics, and operations research. SEU theory defines the conditions of perfect utility-maximizing rationality in a world of certainty or in a world in which the probability distributions of all relevant variables can be provided by the decision makers. In spirit, it might be compared with a theory of ideal gases or of frictionless bodies sliding down inclined planes in a vacuum. ) SEU theory deals only with decision making; it has nothing to say about how to frame problems, set goals, or develop new alternatives. Prescri ptive theories of choice such as SEU are complemented by empirical research that shows how people actually make decisions (purchasing insurance, voting for political candidates, or investing in securities), and research on the processes people use to solve problems (designing switchgear or finding chemical reaction pathways).This research demonstrates that people solve problems by selective, heuristic search through large problem spaces and large data bases, using means-ends analysis as a principal technique for guiding the search. The expert systems that are now being produced by research on artificial intelligence and applied to such tasks as interpreting oil-well drilling logs or making medical diagnoses are outgrowths of these research findings on human problem solving.What chiefly distinguishes the empirical research on decision making and problem solving from the prescriptive approaches derived from SEU theory is the attention that the former gives to the limits on human ratio nality. These limits are imposed by the complexity of the world in which we live, the incompleteness and inadequacy of human knowledge, the inconsistencies of individual preference and belief, the conflicts of value among people and groups of people, and the inadequacy of the computations we can carry out, even with the aid of the most powerful computers.The real world of human decisions is not a world of ideal gases, frictionless planes, or vacuums. To bring it within the scope of human thinking powers, we must simplify our problem formulations drastically, even leaving out much or most of what is potentially relevant. The descriptive theory of problem solving and decision making is centrally concerned with how people cut problems down to size: how they apply approximate, heuristic techniques to handle complexity that cannot be handled exactly.Out of this descriptive theory is emerging an augmented and amended prescriptive theory, one that takes account of the gaps and elements of unrealism in SEU theory by encompassing problem solving as well as choice and demanding only the kinds of knowledge, consistency, and computational power that are attainable in the real world. The growing realization that coping with complexity is central to human decision making strongly influences the directions of research in this domain.Operations research and artificial intelligence are forging powerful new computational tools; at the same time, a new body of mathematical theory is evolving around the topic of computational complexity. Economics, which has traditionally derived both its descriptive and prescriptive approaches from SEU theory, is now paying a great deal of attention to uncertainty and incomplete information; to so-called â€Å"agency theory,† which takes account of the institutional framework within which decisions are made; and to game theory, which seeks to deal with interindividual and intergroup processes in which there is partial conflict of interest .Economists and political scientists are also increasingly buttressing the empirical foundations of their field by studying individual choice behavior directly and by studying behavior in experimentally constructed markets and simulated political structures. The following pages contain a fuller outline of current knowledge about decision making and problem solving and a brief review of current research directions in these fields as well as some of the principal research opportunities. Decision Making SEU THEORY The development of SEU theory was a major intellectual achievement of the first half of this century.It gave for the first time a formally axiomatized statement of what it would mean for an agent to behave in a consistent, rational matter. It assumed that a decision maker possessed a utility function (an ordering by preference among all the possible outcomes of choice), that all the alternatives among which choice could be made were known, and that the consequences of choosin g each alternative could be ascertained (or, in the version of the theory that treats of choice under uncertainty, it assumed that a subjective or objective probability distribution of consequences was associated with each alternative).By admitting subjectively assigned probabilities, SEU theory opened the way to fusing subjective opinions with objective data, an approach that can also be used in man-machine decision-making systems. In the probabilistic version of the theory, Bayes's rule prescribes how people should take account of new information and how they should respond to incomplete information. The assumptions of SEU theory are very strong, permitting correspondingly strong inferences to be made from them.Although the assumptions cannot be satisfied even remotely for most complex situations in the real world, they may be satisfied approximately in some microcosms–problem situations that can be isolated from the world's complexity and dealt with independently. For exam ple, the manager of a commercial cattle-feeding operation might isolate the problem of finding the least expensive mix of feeds available in the market that would meet all the nutritional requirements of his cattle.The computational tool of linear programming, which is a powerful method for maximizing goal achievement or minimizing costs while satisfying all kinds of side conditions (in this case, the nutritional requirements), can provide the manager with an optimal feed mix–optimal within the limits of approximation of his model to real world conditions. Linear programming and related operations research techniques are now used widely to make decisions whenever a situation that reasonably fits their assumptions can be carved out of its complex surround.These techniques have been especially valuable aids to middle management in dealing with relatively well-structured decision problems. Most of the tools of modern operations research–not only linear programming, but al so integer programming, queuing theory, decision trees, and other widely used techniques–use the assumptions of SEU theory. They assume that what is desired is to maximize the achievement of some goal, under specified constraints and assuming that all alternatives and consequences (or their probability distributions) are known.These tools have proven their usefulness in a wide variety of applications. THE LIMITS OF RATIONALITY Operations research tools have also underscored dramatically the limits of SEU theory in dealing with complexity. For example, present and prospective computers are not even powerful enough to provide exact solutions for the problems of optimal scheduling and routing of jobs through a typical factory that manufactures a variety of products using many different tools and machines.And the mere thought of using these computational techniques to determine an optimal national policy for energy production or an optimal economic policy reveals their limits. Co mputational complexity is not the only factor that limits the literal application of SEU theory. The theory also makes enormous demands on information. For the utility function, the range of available alternatives and the consequences following from each alternative must all be known.Increasingly, research is being directed at decision making that takes realistic account of the compromises and approximations that must be made in order to fit real-world problems to the informational and computational limits of people and computers, as well as to the inconsistencies in their values and perceptions. The study of actual decision processes (for example, the strategies used by corporations to make their investments) reveals massive and unavoidable departures from the framework of SEU theory.The sections that follow describe some of the things that have been learned about choice under various conditions of incomplete information, limited computing power, inconsistency, and institutional co nstraints on alternatives. Game theory, agency theory, choice under uncertainty, and the theory of markets are a few of the directions of this research, with the aims both of constructing prescriptive theories of broader application and of providing more realistic descriptions and explanations of actual decision making within U. S. economic and political institutions.LIMITED RATIONALITY IN ECONOMIC THEORY Although the limits of human rationality were stressed by some researchers in the 1950s, only recently has there been extensive activity in the field of economics aimed at developing theories that assume less than fully rational choice on the part of business firm managers and other economic agents. The newer theoretical research undertakes to answer such questions as the following: †¢ Are market equilibria altered by the departures of actual choice behavior from the behavior of fully rational agents predicted by SEU theory? Under what circumstances do the processes of competi tion â€Å"police† markets in such a way as to cancel out the effects of the departures from full rationality? †¢ In what ways are the choices made by boundedly rational agents different from those made by fully rational agents? Theories of the firm that assume managers are aiming at â€Å"satisfactory† profits or that their concern is to maintain the firm's share of market in the industry make quite different predictions about economic equilibrium than those derived from the assumption of profit maximization.Moreover, the classical theory of the firm cannot explain why economic activity is sometimes organized around large business firms and sometimes around contractual networks of individuals or smaller organizations. New theories that take account of differential access of economic agents to information, combined with differences in self-interest, are able to account for these important phenomena, as well as provide explanations for the many forms of contracts t hat are used in business.Incompleteness and asymmetry of information have been shown to be essential for explaining how individuals and business firms decide when to face uncertainty by insuring, when by hedging, and when by assuming the risk. Most current work in this domain still assumes that economic agents seek to maximize utility, but within limits posed by the incompleteness and uncertainty of the information available to them.An important potential area of research is to discover how choices will be changed if there are other departures from the axioms of rational choice–for example, substituting goals of reaching specified aspiration levels (satisficing) for goals of maximizing. Applying the new assumptions about choice to economics leads to new empirically supported theories about decision making over time. The classical theory of perfect rationality leaves no room for regrets, second thoughts, or â€Å"weakness of will. It cannot explain why many individuals enroll in Christmas savings plans, which earn interest well below the market rate. More generally, it does not lead to correct conclusions about the important social issues of saving and conservation. The effect of pensions and social security on personal saving has been a controversial issue in economics. The standard economic model predicts that an increase in required pension saving will reduce other saving dollar for dollar; behavioral theories, on the other hand, predict a much smaller offset. The empirical evidence indicates that the offset is indeed very small.Another empirical finding is that the method of payment of wages and salaries affects the saving rate. For example, annual bonuses produce a higher saving rate than the same amount of income paid in monthly salaries. This finding implies that saving rates can be influenced by the way compensation is framed. If individuals fail to discount properly for the passage of time, their decisions will not be optimal. For example, air conditioners vary greatly in their energy efficiency; the more efficient models cost more initially but save money over the long run through lower energy consumption.It has been found that consumers, on average, choose air conditioners that imply a discount rate of 25 percent or more per year, much higher than the rates of interest that prevailed at the time of the study. As recently as five years ago, the evidence was thought to be unassailable that markets like the New York Stock Exchange work efficiently–that prices reflect all available information at any given moment in time, so that stock price movements resemble a random walk and contain no systematic information that could be exploited for profit.Recently, however, substantial departures from the behavior predicted by the efficient-market hypothesis have been detected. For example, small firms appear to earn inexplicably high returns on the market prices of their stock, while firms that have very low price-earnings ra tios and firms that have lost much of their market value in the recent past also earn abnormally high returns. All of these results are consistent with the empirical finding that decision makers often overreact to new information, in violation of Bayes's rule.In the same way, it has been found that stock prices are excessively volatile–that they fluctuate up and down more rapidly and violently than they would if the marke t were efficient. There has also been a long-standing puzzle as to why firms pay dividends. Considering that dividends are taxed at a higher rate than capital gains, taxpaying investors should prefer, under the assumptions of perfect rationality, that their firms reinvest earnings or repurchase shares instead of paying dividends. (The investors could simply sell some of their appreciated shares to obtain the income they require. The solution to this puzzle also requires models of investors that take account of limits on rationality. THE THEORY OF GAMES In ec onomic, political, and other social situations in which there is actual or potential conflict of interest, especially if it is combined with incomplete information, SEU theory faces special difficulties. In markets in which there are many competitors (e. g. , the wheat market), each buyer or seller can accept the market price as a â€Å"given† that will not be affected materially by the actions of any single individual.Under these conditions, SEU theory makes unambiguous predictions of behavior. However, when a market has only a few suppliers –say, for example, two–matters are quite different. In this case, what it is rational to do depends on what one's competitor is going to do, and vice versa. Each supplier may try to outwit the other. What then is the rational decision? The most ambitious attempt to answer questions of this kind was the theory of games, developed by von Neumann and Morgenstern and published in its full form in 1944. But the answers provided by the theory of games are sometimes very puzzling and ambiguous.In many situations, no single course of action dominates all the others; instead, a whole set of possible solutions are all equally consistent with the postulates of rationality. One game that has been studied extensively, both theoretically and empirically, is the Prisoner's Dilemma. In this game between two players, each has a choice between two actions, one trustful of the other player, the other mistrustful or exploitative. If both players choose the trustful alternative, both receive small rewards. If both choose the exploitative alternative, both are punished.If one chooses the trustful alternative and the other the exploitative alternative, the former is punished much more severely than in the previous case, while the latter receives a substantial reward. If the other player's choice is fixed but unknown, it is advantageous for a player to choose the exploitative alternative, for this will give him the best outc ome in either case. But if both adopt this reasoning, they will both be punished, whereas they could both receive rewards if they agreed upon the trustful choice (and did not welch on the agreement).The terms of the game have an unsettling resemblance to certain situations in the relations between nations or between a company and the employees' union. The resemblance becomes stronger if one imagines the game as being played repeatedly. Analyses of â€Å"rational† behavior under assumptions of intended utility maximization support the conclusion that the players will (ought to? ) always make the mistrustful choice. Nevertheless, in laboratory experiments with the game, it is often found that players (even those who are expert in game theory) adopt a â€Å"tit-for-tat† strategy.That is, each plays the trustful, cooperative strategy as long as his or her partner does the same. If the partner exploits the player on a particular trial, the player then plays the exploitative strategy on the next trial and continues to do so until the partner switches back to the trustful strategy. Under these conditions, the game frequently stabilizes with the players pursuing the mutually trustful strategy and receiving the rewards. With these empirical findings in hand, theorists have recently sought and found some of the conditions for attaining this kind of benign stability.It occurs, for example, if the players set aspirations for a satisfactory reward rather than seeking the maximum reward. This result is consistent with the finding that in many situations, as in the Prisoner's Dilemma game, people appear to satisfice rather than attempting to optimize. The Prisoner's Dilemma game illustrates an important point that is beginning to be appreciated by those who do research on decision making. There are so many ways in which actual human behavior can depart from the SEU assumptions that theorists seeking to account for behavior are confronted with an embarrassment o f riches.To choose among the many alternative models that could account for the anomalies of choice, extensive empirical research is called for–to see how people do make their choices, what beliefs guide them, what information they have available, and what part of that information they take into account and what part they ignore. In a world of limited rationality, economics and the other decision sciences must closely examine the actual limits on rationality in order to make accurate predictions and to provide sound advice on public policy.EMPIRICAL STUDIES OF CHOICE UNDER UNCERTAINTY During the past ten years, empirical studies of human choices in which uncertainty, inconsistency, and incomplete information are present have produced a rich collection of findings which only now are beginning to be organized under broad generalizations. Here are a few examples. When people are given information about the probabilities of certain events (e. g. , how many lawyers and how many en gineers are in a population that is being sampled), and then are given some additional information as to which of the vents has occurred (which person has been sampled from the population), they tend to ignore the prior probabilities in favor of incomplete or even quite irrelevant information about the individual event. Thus, if they are told that 70 percent of the population are lawyers, and if they are then given a noncommittal description of a person (one that could equally well fit a lawyer or an engineer), half the time they will predict that the person is a lawyer and half the time that he is an engineer–even though the laws of probability dictate that the best forecast is always to predict that the person is a lawyer.People commonly misjudge probabilities in many other ways. Asked to estimate the probability that 60 percent or more of the babies born in a hospital during a given week are male, they ignore information about the total number of births, although it is evi dent that the probability of a departure of this magnitude from the expected value of 50 percent is smaller if the total number of births is larger (the standard error of a percentage varies inversely with the square root of the population size). There are situations in which people assess the frequency of a class by the ease with which instances can be brought to mind.In one experiment, subjects heard a list of names of persons of both sexes and were later asked to judge whether there were more names of men or women on the list. In lists presented to some subjects, the men were more famous than the women; in other lists, the women were more famous than the men. For all lists, subjects judged that the sex that had the more famous personalities was the more numerous. The way in which an uncertain possibility is presented may have a substantial effect on how people respond to it.When asked whether they would choose surgery in a hypothetical medical emergency, many more people said tha t they would when the chance of survival was given as 80 percent than when the chance of death was given as 20 percent. On the basis of these studies, some of the general heuristics, or rules of thumb, that people use in making judgments have been compiled—heuristics that produce biases toward classifying situations according to their representativeness, or toward judging frequencies according to the availability of examples in memory, or toward interpretations warped by the way in which a problem has been framed.These findings have important implications for public policy. A recent example is the lobbying effort of the credit card industry to have differentials between cash and credit prices labeled â€Å"cash discounts† rather than â€Å"credit surcharges. † The research findings raise questions about how to phrase cigarette warning labels or frame truth-in-lending laws and informed consent laws. METHODS OF EMPIRICAL RESEARCH Finding the underlying bases of hu man choice behavior is difficult.People cannot always, or perhaps even usually, provide veridical accounts of how they make up their minds, especially when there is uncertainty. In many cases, they can predict how they will behave (pre-election polls of voting intentions have been reasonably accurate when carefully taken), but the reasons people give for their choices can often be shown to be rationalizations and not closely related to their real motives. Students of choice behavior have steadily improved their research methods. They question respondents about specific situations, rather than asking for generalizations.They are sensitive to the dependence of answers on the exact forms of the questions. They are aware that behavior in an experimental situation may be different from behavior in real life, and they attempt to provide experimental settings and motivations that are as realistic as possible. Using thinking-aloud protocols and other approaches, they try to track the choice behavior step by step, instead of relying just on information about outcomes or querying respondents retrospectively about their choice processes.Perhaps the most common method of empirical research in this field is still to ask people to respond to a series of questions. But data obtained by this method are being supplemented by data obtained from carefully designed laboratory experiments and from observations of actual choice behavior (for example, the behavior of customers in supermarkets). In an experimental study of choice, subjects may trade in an actual market with real (if modest) monetary rewards and penalties.Research experience has also demonstrated the feasibility of making direct observations, over substantial periods of time, of the decision-making processes in business and governmental organizations–for example, observations of the procedures that corporations use in making new investments in plant and equipment. Confidence in the empirical findings that have been accumulating over the past several decades is enhanced by the general consistency that is observed among the data obtained from quite different settings using different research methods.There still remains the enormous and challenging task of putting together these findings into an empirically founded theory of decision making. With the growing availability of data, the theory-building enterprise is receiving much better guidance from the facts than it did in the past. As a result, we can expect it to become correspondingly more effective in arriving at realistic models of behavior. Problem Solving The theory of choice has its roots mainly in economics, statistics, and operations research and only recently has received much attention from psychologists; the theory of problem solving has a very different history.Problem solving was initially studied principally by psychologists, and more recently by researchers in artificial intelligence. It has received rather scant attention f rom economists. CONTEMPORARY PROBLEM-SOLVING THEORY Human problem solving is usually studied in laboratory settings, using problems that can be solved in relatively short periods of time (seldom more than an hour), and often seeking a maximum density of data about the solution process by asking subjects to think aloud while they work.The thinking-aloud technique, at first viewed with suspicion by behaviorists as subjective and â€Å"introspective,† has received such careful methodological attention in recent years that it can now be used dependably to obtain data about subjects' behaviors in a wide range of settings. The laboratory study of problem solving has been supplemented by field studies of professionals solving real-world problems–for example, physicians making diagnoses and chess grandmasters analyzing game positions, and, as noted earlier, even business corporations making investment decisions.Currently, historical records, including laboratory notebooks of s cientists, are also being used to study problem-solving processes in scientific discovery. Although such records are far less â€Å"dense† than laboratory protocols, they sometimes permit the course of discovery to be traced in considerable detail. Laboratory notebooks of scientists as distinguished as Charles Darwin, Michael Faraday, Antoine-Laurent Lavoisier, and Hans Krebs have been used successfully in such research. From empirical studies, a description can now be given of the problem-solving process that holds for a rather wide range of activities.First, problem solving generally proceeds by selective search through large sets of possibilities, using rules of thumb (heuristics) to guide the search. Because the possibilities in realistic problem situations are generally multitudinous, trial-and-error search would simply not work; the search must be highly selective. Chess grandmasters seldom examine more than a hundred of the vast number of possible scenarios that confro nt them, and similar small numbers of searches are observed in other kinds of problem-solving search.One of the procedures often used to guide search is â€Å"hill climbing,† using some measure of approach to the goal to determine where it is most profitable to look next. Another, and more powerful, common procedure is means-ends analysis. In means-ends analysis, the problem solver compares the present situation with the goal, detects a difference between them, and then searches memory for actions that are likely to reduce the difference.Thus, if the difference is a fifty-mile distance from the goal, the problem solver will retrieve from memory knowledge about autos, carts, bicycles, and other means of transport; walking and flying will probably be discarded as inappropriate for that distance. The third thing that has been learned about problem solving–especially when the solver is an expert–is that it relies on large amounts of information that are stored in me mory and that are retrievable whenever the solver recognizes cues signaling its relevance.Thus, the expert knowledge of a diagnostician is evoked by the symptoms presented by the patient; this knowledge leads to the recollection of what additional information is needed to discriminate among alternative diseases and, finally, to the diagnosis. In a few cases, it has been possible to estimate how many patterns an expert must be able to recognize in order to gain access to the relevant knowledge stored in memory. A chess master must be able to recognize about 50,000 different configurations of chess pieces that occur frequently in the course of chess games.A medical diagnostician must be able to recognize tens of thousands of configurations of symptoms; a botanist or zoologist specializing in taxonomy, tens or hundreds of thousands of features of specimens that define their species. For comparison, college graduates typically have vocabularies in their native languages of 50,000 to 200 ,000 words. (However, these numbers are very small in comparison with the real-world situations the expert faces: there are perhaps 10120 branches in the game tree of chess, a game played with only six kinds of pieces on an 8 x 8 board. One of the accomplishments of the contemporary theory of problem solving has been to provide an explanation for the phenomena of intuition and judgment frequently seen in experts' behavior. The store of expert knowledge, â€Å"indexed† by the recognition cues that make it accessible and combined with some basic inferential capabilities (perhaps in the form of means-ends analysis), accounts for the ability of experts to find satisfactory solutions for difficult problems, and sometimes to find them almost instantaneously.The expert's â€Å"intuition† and â€Å"judgment† derive from this capability for rapid recognition linked to a large store of knowledge. When immediate intuition fails to yield a problem solution or when a prospec tive solution needs to be evaluated, the expert falls back on the slower processes of analysis and inference. EXPERT SYSTEMS IN ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Over the past thirty years, there has been close teamwork between research in psychology and research in computer science aimed at developing intelligent programs. Artificial intelligence (AI) research has both borrowed from and contributed to research on human problem solving.Today, artificial intelligence is beginning to produce systems, applied to a variety of tasks, that can solve difficult problems at the level of professionally trained humans. These AI programs are usually called expert systems. A description of a typical expert system would resemble closely the description given above of typical human problem solving; the differences between the two would be differences in degree, not in kind. An AI expert system, relying on the speed of computers and their ability to retain large bodies of transient information in memory, wil l generally use â€Å"brute force†Ã¢â‚¬â€œsheer omputational speed and power–more freely than a human expert can. A human expert, in compensation, will generally have a richer set of heuristics to guide search and a larger vocabulary of recognizable patterns. To the observer, the computer's process will appear the more systematic and even compulsive, the human's the more intuitive. But these are quantitative, not qualitative, differences. The number of tasks for which expert systems have been built is increasing rapidly. One is medical diagnosis (two examples are the CADUCEUS and MYCIN programs).Others are automatic design of electric motors, generators, and transformers (which predates by a decade the invention of the term expert systems), the configuration of computer systems from customer specifications, and the automatic generation of reaction paths for the synthesis of organic molecules. All of these (and others) are either being used currently in professional or industrial practice or at least have reached a level at which they can produce a professionally acceptable product. Expert systems are generally constructed in close consultation with the people who are experts in the task domain.Using standard techniques of observation and interrogation, the heuristics that the human expert uses, implicitly and often unconsciously, to perform the task are gradually educed, made explicit, and incorporated in program structures. Although a great deal has been learned about how to do this, improving techniques for designing expert systems is an important current direction of research. It is especially important because expert systems, once built, cannot remain static but must be modifiable to incorporate new knowledge as it becomes available.DEALING WITH ILL-STRUCTURED PROBLEMS In the 1950s and 1960s, research on problem solving focused on clearly structured puzzle-like problems that were easily brought into the psychological laboratory and that were within the range of computer programming sophistication at that time. Computer programs were written to discover proofs for theorems in Euclidean geometry or to solve the puzzle of transporting missionaries and cannibals across a river. Choosing chess moves was perhaps the most complex task that received attention in the early years of cognitive science and AI.As understanding grew of the methods needed to handle these relatively simple tasks, research aspirations rose. The next main target, in the 1960s and 1970s, was to find methods for solving problems that involved large bodies of semantic information. Medical diagnosis and interpreting mass spectrogram data are examples of the kinds of tasks that were investigated during this period and for which a good level of understanding was achieved. They are tasks that, for all of the knowledge they call upon, are still well structured, with clear-cut goals and constraints.The current research target is to gain an understanding of proble m-solving tasks when the goals themselves are complex and sometimes ill defined, and when the very nature of the problem is successively transformed in the course of exploration. To the extent that a problem has these characteristics, it is usually called ill structured. Because ambiguous goals and shifting problem formulations are typical characteristics of problems of design, the work of architects offers a good example of what is involved in solving ill-structured problems.An architect begins with some very general specifications of what is wanted by a client. The initial goals are modified and substantially elaborated as the architect proceeds with the task. Initial design ideas, recorded in drawings and diagrams, themselves suggest new criteria, new possibilities, and new requirements. Throughout the whole process of design, the emerging conception provides continual feedback that reminds the architect of additional considerations that need to be taken into account.With the cur rent state of the art, it is just beginning to be possible to construct programs that simulate this kind of flexible problem-solving process. What is called for is an expert system whose expertise includes substantial knowledge about design criteria as well as knowledge about the means for satisfying those criteria. Both kinds of knowledge are evoked in the course of the design activity by the usual recognition processes, and the evocation of design criteria and constraints continually modifies and remolds the problem that the design system is addressing.The large data bases that can now be constructed to aid in the management of architectural and construction projects provide a framework into which AI tools, fashioned along these lines, can be incorporated. Most corporate strategy problems and governmental policy problems are at least as ill structured as problems of architectural or engineering design. The tools now being forged for aiding architectural design will provide a basis for building tools that can aid in formulating, assessing, and monitoring public energy or environmental policies, or in guiding corporate product and investment strategies.SETTING THE AGENDA AND REPRESENTING A PROBLEM The very first steps in the problem-solving process are the least understood. What brings (and should bring) problems to the head of the agenda? And when a problem is identified, how can it be represented in a way that facilitates its solution? The task of setting an agenda is of utmost importance because both individual human beings and human institutions have limited capacities for dealing with many tasks simultaneously. While some problems are receiving full attention, others are neglected.Where new problems come thick and fast, â€Å"fire fighting† replaces planning and deliberation. The facts of limited attention span, both for individuals and for institutions like the Congress, are well known. However, relatively little has been accomplished toward analy zing or designing effective agenda-setting systems. A beginning could be made by the study of â€Å"alerting† organizations like the Office of Technology Assessment or military and foreign affairs intelligence agencies.Because the research and development function in industry is also in considerable part a task of monitoring current and prospective technological advances, it could also be studied profitably from this standpoint. The way in which problems are represented has much to do with the quality of the solutions that are found. The task of designing highways or dams takes on an entirely new aspect if human responses to a changed environment are taken into account. (New transportation routes cause people to move their homes, and people show a considerable propensity to move into zones that are subject to flooding when partial protections are erected. Very different social welfare policies are usually proposed in response to the problem of providing incentives for economi c independence than are proposed in response to the problem of taking care of the needy. Early management information systems were designed on the assumption that information was the scarce resource; today, because designers recognize that the scarce resource is managerial attention, a new framework produces quite different designs. The representation or â€Å"framing† of problems is even less well understood than agenda setting.Today's expert systems make use of problem representations that already exist. But major advances in human knowledge frequently derive from new ways of thinking about problems. A large part of the history of physics in nineteenth-century England can be written in terms of the shift from action-at-a-distance representations to the field representations that were developed by the applied mathematicians at Cambridge. Today, developments in computer-aided design (CAD) present new opportunities to provide human designers with computer-generated representat ions of their problems.Effective use of these capabilities requires us to understand better how people extract information from diagrams and other displays and how displays can enhance human performance in design tasks. Research on representations is fundamental to the progress of CAD. COMPUTATION AS PROBLEM SOLVING Nothing has been said so far about the radical changes that have been brought about in problem solving over most of the domains of science and engineering by the standard uses of computers as computational devices.Although a few examples come to mind in which artificial intelligence has contributed to these developments, they have mainly been brought about by research in the individual sciences themselves, combined with work in numerical analysis. Whatever their origins, the massive computational applications of computers are changing the conduct of science in numerous ways. There are new specialties emerging such as â€Å"computational physics† and â€Å"computa tional chemistry. Computation–that is to say, problem solving–becomes an object of explicit concern to scientists, side by side with the substance of the science itself. Out of this new awareness of the computational component of scientific inquiry is arising an increasing interaction among computational specialists in the various sciences and scientists concerned with cognition and AI. This interaction extends well beyond the traditional area of numerical analysis, or even the newer subject of computational complexity, into the heart of the theory of problem solving.Physicists seeking to handle the great mass of bubble-chamber data produced by their instruments began, as early as the 1960s, to look to AI for pattern recognition methods as a basis for automating the analysis of their data. The construction of expert systems to interpret mass spectrogram data and of other systems to design synthesis paths for chemical reactions are other examples of problem solving in s cience, as are programs to aid in matching sequences of nucleic acids in DNA and RNA and amino acid sequences in proteins.Theories of human problem solving and learning are also beginning to attract new attention within the scientific community as a basis for improving science teaching. Each advance in the understanding of problem solving and learning processes provides new insights about the ways in which a learner must store and index new knowledge and procedures if they are to be useful for solving problems. Research on these topics is also generating new ideas about how effective learning takes place–for example, how students can learn by examining and analyzing worked-out examples. Extensions of TheoryOpportunities for advancing our understanding of decision making and problem solving are not limited to the topics dealt with above, and in this section, just a few indications of additional promising directions for research are presented. DECISION MAKING OVER TIME The time dimension is especially troublesome in decision making. Economics has long used the notion of time discounting and interest rates to compare present with future consequences of decisions, but as noted above, research on actual decision making shows that people frequently are inconsistent in their choices between present and future.Although time discounting is a powerful idea, it requires fixing appropriate discount rates for individual, and especially social, decisions. Additional problems arise because human tastes and priorities change over time. Classical SEU theory assumes a fixed, consistent utility function, which does not easily accommodate changes in taste. At the other extreme, theories postulating a limited attention span do not have ready ways of ensuring consistency of choice over time. AGGREGATIONIn applying our knowledge of decision making and problem solving to society-wide, or even organization-wide, phenomena, the problem of aggregation must be solved; that is, way s must be found to extrapolate from theories of individual decision processes to the net effects on the whole economy, polity, and society. Because of the wide variety of ways in which any given decision task can be approached, it is unrealistic to postulate a â€Å"representative firm† or an â€Å"economic man,† and to simply lump together the behaviors of large numbers of supposedly identical individuals.Solving the aggregation problem becomes more important as more of the empirical research effort is directed toward studying behavior at a detailed, microscopic level. ORGANIZATIONS Related to aggregation is the question of how decision making and problem solving change when attention turns from the behavior of isolated individuals to the behavior of these same individuals operating as members of organizations or other groups.When people assume organizational positions, they adapt their goals and values to their responsibilities. Moreover, their decisions are influenc ed substantially by the patterns of information flow and other communications among the various organization units. Organizations sometimes display sophisticated capabilities far beyond the understanding of single individuals. They sometimes make enormous blunders or find themselves incapable of acting.Organizational performance is highly sensitive to the quality of the routines or â€Å"performance programs† that govern behavior and to the adaptability of these routines in the face of a changing environment. In particular, the â€Å"peripheral vision† of a complex organization is limited, so that responses to novelty in the environment may be made in inappropriate and quasi-automatic ways that cause major failure. Theory development, formal modeling, laboratory experiments, and analysis of historical cases are all going forward in this important area of inquiry.Although the decision-making processes of organizations have been studied in the field on a limited scale, a great many more such intensive studies will be needed before the full range of techniques used by organizations to make their decisions is understood, and before the strengths and weaknesses of these techniques are grasped. LEARNING Until quite recently, most research in cognitive science and artificial intelligence had been aimed at understanding how intelligent systems perform their work.Only in the past five years has attention begun to turn to the question of how systems become intelligent–how they learn. A number of promising hypotheses about learning mechanisms are currently being explored. One is the so-called connexionist hypothesis, which postulates networks that learn by changing the strengths of their interconnections in response to feedback. Another learning mechanism that is being investigated is the adaptive production system, a computer program that learns by generating new instructions that are simply annexed to the existing program.Some success has been achi eved in constructing adaptive production systems that can learn to solve equations in algebra and to do other tasks at comparable levels of difficulty. Learning is of particular importance for successful adaptation to an environment that is changing rapidly. Because that is exactly the environment of the 1980s, the trend toward broadening research on decision making to include learning and adaptation is welcome. This section has by no means exhausted the areas in which exciting and important research can be launched to deepen understanding of decision making and problem solving.But perhaps the examples that have been provided are sufficient to convey the promise and significance of this field of inquiry today. Current Research Programs Most of the current research on decision making and problem solving is carried on in universities, frequently with the support of government funding agencies and private foundations. Some research is done by consulting firms in connection with their d evelopment and application of the tools of operations research, artificial intelligence, and systems modeling.In some cases, government agencies and corporations have supported the development of planning models to aid them in their policy planning–for example, corporate strategic planning for investments and markets and government planning of environmental and energy policies. There is an increasing number of cases in which research scientists are devoting substantial attention to improving the problem-solving and decision-making tools in their disciplines, as we noted in the examples of automation of the processing of bubble-chamber tracks and of the interpretation of mass spectrogram data.To use a generous estimate, support for basic research in the areas described in this document is probably at the level of tens of millions of dollars per year, and almost certainly, it is not as much as $100 million. The principal costs are for research personnel and computing equipment, the former being considerably larger. Because of the interdisciplinary character of the research domain, federal research support comes from a number of different agencies, and it is not easy to assess the total picture.Within the National Science Foundation (NSF), the grants of the decision and management sciences, political science and the economics programs in the Social Sciences Division are to a considerable extent devoted to projects in this domain. Smaller amounts of support come from the memory and cognitive processes program in the Division of Behavioral and Neural Sciences, and perhaps from other programs. The â€Å"software† component of the new NSF Directorate of Computer Science and Engineering contains programs that have also provided important support to the study of decision making and problem solving.The Office of Naval Research has, over the years, supported a wide range of studies of decision making, including important early support for operations researc h. The main source of funding for research in AI has been the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) in the Department of Defense; important support for research on applications of A1 to medicine has been provided by the National Institutes of Health. Relevant economics research is also funded by other federal agencies, including the Treasury Department, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Federal Reserve Board.In recent years, basic studies of decision making have received only relatively minor support from these sources, but because of the relevance of the research to their missions, they could become major sponsors. Although a number of projects have been and are funded by private foundations, there appears to be at present no foundation for which decision making and problem solving are a major focus of interest. In sum, the pattern of support for research in this field shows a healthy diversity but no agency with a clear lead responsibility, unless it be the rathe r modestly funded program in decision and management sciences at NSF.Perhaps the largest scale of support has been provided by DARPA, where decision making and problem solving are only components within the larger area of artificial intelligence and certainly not highly visible research targets. The character of the funding requirements in this domain is much the same as in other fields of research. A rather intensive use of computational facilities is typical of most, but not all, of the research. And because the field is gaining new recognition and growing rapidly, there are special needs for the support of graduate students and postdoctoral training.In the computing-intensive part of the domain, desirable research funding per principal investigator might average $250,000 per year; in empirical research involving field studies and large-scale experiments, a similar amount; and in other areas of theory and laboratory experimentation, somewhat less. Research Opportunities: Summary T he study of decision making and problem solving has attracted much attention through most of this century. By the end of World War II, a powerful prescriptive theory of rationality, the theory of subjective expected utility (SEU), had taken form; it was followed by the theory of games.The past forty years have seen widespread applications of these theories in economics, operations research, and statistics, and, through these disciplines, to decision making in business and government. The main limitations of SEU theory and the developments based on it are its relative neglect of the limits of human (and computer) problem-solving capabilities in the face of real-world complexity. Recognition of these limitations has produced an increasing volume of empirical research aimed at discovering how humans cope with complexity and reconcile it with their bounded computational powers.Recognition that human rationality is limited occasions no surprise. What is surprising are some of the forms t hese limits take and the kinds of departures from the behavior predicted by the SEU model that have been observed. Extending empirical knowledge of actual human cognitive processes and of techniques for dealing with complexity continues to be a research goal of very high priority. Such empirical knowledge is needed both to build valid theories of how the U. S. society and economy operate and to build prescriptive tools for decision making that are compatible with existing computational capabilities.The complementary fields of cognitive psychology and artificial intelligence have produced in the past thirty years a fairly well-developed theory of problem solving that lends itself well to computer simulation, both for purposes of testing its empirical validity and for augmenting human problem-solving capacities by the construction of expert systems. Problem-solving research today is being extended into the domain of ill-structured problems and applied to the task of formulating proble m representations.The processes for setting the problem agenda, which are still very little explored, deserve more research attention. The growing importance of computational techniques in all of the sciences has attracted new attention to numerical analysis and to the topic of computational complexity. The need to use heuristic as well as rigorous methods for analyzing very complex domains is beginning to bring about a wide interest, in various sciences, in the possible application of problem-solving theories to computation.Opportunities abound for productive research in decision making and problem solving. A few of the directions of research that look especially promising and significant follow: †¢ A substantially enlarged program of empirical studies, involving direct observation of behavior at the level of the individual and the organization, and including both laboratory and field experiments, will be essential in sifting the wheat from the chaff in the large body of theor y that now exists and in giving direction to the development of new theory. Expanded research on expert systems will require extensive empirical study of expert behavior and will provide a setting for basic research on how ill-structured problems are, and can be, solved. †¢ Decision making in organizational settings, which is much less well understood than individual decision making and problem solving, can be studied with great profit using already established methods of inquiry, especially through intensive long-range studies within individual organizations. The resolution of conflicts of values (individual and group) and of inconsistencies in belief will continue to be highly productive directions of inquiry, addressed to issues of great importance to society. †¢ Setting agendas and framing problems are two related but poorly understood processes that require special research attention and that now seem open to attack. These five areas are examples of especially promisi ng research opportunities drawn from the much larger set that are described or hinted at in this report.The tools for decision making developed by previous research have already found extensive application in business and government organizations. A number of such applications have been mentioned in this report, but they so pervade organizations, especially at the middle management and professional levels, that people are often unaware of their origins. Although the research domain of decision making and problem solving is alive and well today, the resources devoted to that research are modest in scale (of the order of tens of millions rather than hundreds of millions of dollars).They are not commensurate with either the identified research opportunities or the human resources available for exploiting them. The prospect of throwing new light on the ancient problem of mind and the prospect of enhancing the powers of mind with new computational tools are attracting substantial numbers of first-rate young scientists. Research progress is not limited either by lack of excellent research problems or by lack of human talent eager to get on with the job. Gaining a better understanding of how problems can be solved and decisions made is essential to our national goal of increasing productivity.The first industrial revolution showed us how to do most of the world's heavy work with the energy of machines instead of human muscle. The new industrial revolution is showing us how much of the work of human thinking can be done by and in cooperation with intelligent machines. Human minds with computers to aid them are our principal productive resource. Understanding how that resource operates is the main road open to us for becoming a more productive society and a society able to deal with the many complex problems in the world today. [pic]

Leadership and Employee Morale

Assignment Leadership and Employee Morale Dorothy â€Å"Micki† Gould Kaplan University Organizational Behavior MT302 Professor Rhonda Shannon May 09, 2012 Unit 8 Assignment Leadership and Employee Morale The ten truths, just learning them is not enough. It is crucial to good leadership to apply them. (Kouzes & Posner, 2010) * You make a difference. Believe in yourself. Believe you can make a difference. If you do not believe it, neither will anyone else. * Credibility is the foundation of leadership. Mean what you say and say what you mean.Do not be misleading; be honest and upfront about everything. * Values drive commitment. If you do not know what you stand for, find out. You need to know what you value. * Focusing on the future sets leaders apart. How can you lead if you do not know where you are going? What is the end goal; do not think you are the only person who sees it or that can get you there. * You cannot do it alone. Remember to lead you have to have followers; you cannot lead if you do not include other people in your plans and have a team. Trust rules. Trust and respect, you cannot get either one without giving it. * Challenge is the crucible of greatness. Do not be afraid of change. If it is not working, ask for suggestions and /or look for different ways to implement changes. Make the changes necessary to grow. * Either you lead by example, or you do not lead at all. Do not expect someone or anyone to do something you are not willing to do yourself. This also goes back to credibility. Do as I do not just, as I say. * The best leaders are the best learners.Strive to learn. Going back to challenges and changes, if it is not working, find a new way to do it. Also, remember you can learn from your followers and team members. * Leadership is an affair of the heart. Have passion in what you are doing, or you cannot lead your team members to want what is best. This is my favorite. My job has a saying: Have a Heart H = Help everyone you can E = Enjoy your job and your customers A = Always â€Å"be there† for your co-workers and customers R = Respect everyone, especially the difficult peopleT = Truth is always the answer (Management, 2012) â€Å"All aspects of transformational leadership—are leaders able to motivate followers to perform above expectations and transcend their self-interest for the sake of the organization. Individualized consideration, intellectual stimulation, inspirational motivation, and idealized influence all result in extra effort from workers, higher productivity, higher morale and satisfaction, higher organizational effectiveness, lower turnover, lower absenteeism, and greater organizational adaptability. (Judge & Robbins, 2007, p. 391) References Judge, T. A. , & Robbins, S. T. (2007). Organizational Behavior (14th ed. ). Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson Education, Inc. Retrieved March 22, 2012 Kouzes, J. , & Posner, B. (2010, August). Leadership Truths. Leadership Excel lence, 27(8), 15. Retrieved May 11, 2012 Management, B. (2012). Employee Handbook. BMG Employee Handbook. Brundage Management. Retrieved May 12, 2012

A Study Of The Political Culture In Japan Since Time Immemorial

A Study Of The Political Culture In Japan Since Time Immemorial Throughout most of history, Japanese political culture has centralized around the concept of imperialism. Only during the time period of 1192-1867 did the central imperialist government loose control. This was brought upon by the civil wars and the anarchy that Japan faced prior to 1192. These events set the stage for a new ruling system called Seii-Taishogun 1. Due to this type of military dictatorship the shogun ruled all of Japan. From the new administrative capital, Edo (present day Tokyo) the shogun era controlled by the Tokugawa family brought long lasting peace to Japan, increased wealth and influence of the warrior class, a distinct social status classification system, decreased power of the emperor, and created an isolationism policy for Japan. Oda Nobunga (1534-1582) and Toyomoto Hideyoshi (1537- 1598) brought their opponents to knees. The process reached its climax in 1590, when Hideyoshi carried his banners into eastern Japan. Tokugawa Ieyasu (1543-1616) rose to power in this vortex of civil war, and succeed Hideyoshi as leader of the country s military estate. With Ieyasu in control of the country he wanted to establish a controlling government body that would keep his family in power for many centuries to come. With the implementation of Tokugawa political rule, this sleepy, historic area was destined to become the capital of all of Japan. By the start of the century, roughly one century after the establishment of Tokugawa bakufu, the city of Edo already boasted a population of around one million in habitants. With the government in the hands of Ieyasu it was clear that he wanted to create a new system of government that would separate the imperial nobles from the military nobles. decreed in Article 7 of the Rules for the Palace and Court that court ranks and offices of members o0f the military are to be treated separately from those held by court nobility. The imperial court that Ieyasu created which featured the emperor had no real power over the country while the members of the military court, led by Ieyasu controlled the country. The two main members of the military court were made up of the shogun, and the daimyo. The shoguns basic responsibilities to the military court was to supervise the court, while daimyo discussed issues, ensure domestic peace among the clans, and protect Japan from hostile outside threats. The daimyo were nobles/lords that that represented various clans and controlled parts of Japan through their regiment of samurai. Each daimyo could control there own section as they saw fit as long as it was is accordance to the regulations handed down by the shogun. As a way to ensure peace, and a willingness of the daimyo to co-operate with the rulings of the court the daimyo had to put up retainers. Bannermen and household retainers were actually put to work as guards in charge of fortifying the surroundings of the castle; daimyo wives and children were required to in live in the capital; daimyo themselves were given no choice but to accept the system of alternate attendance. Also Ieyasu ensured that his family would be guaranteed the leadership of the country, and assurance that no one daimyo clan could over power the government. Imposing taxes and repercussions that would be to great of a risk to rebel against the shogun government. Ieyasu imposed strict controls on the daimyo families, in particular those which had opposed his own bid for power. They were forced to spend a large part of the revenue from their fiefs on road-building and other improvements, and also to maintain residences in Edo, the shoguns seat of government, as well as in their fiefs. This kept them too poor to mount any effective opposition to the shogunate, even if they had been willing to sacrifice their families. 5 By means of these different types of influence that the shogun had over various government councils, this left the shogun with no serious challenges towards his authority. By the final decades of the seventeenth century, when the process of state building had run its course in France and Japan, the shogun and king embraced in principle and often exercised in practice and unprecedented degree of power. Each hegemon asserted the supreme right to proclaim laws, levy taxes, and adjudicate disputes. Each ruler presided over a bureaucracy that carried out the details of governance, and each state enjoyed monopoly on the legitimate use of physical force, the better to impose its will. 6 Which is why the emperor, and the imperial court had no real power over the country and that the shogun reigned supreme it its military dictatorship. Due to this new era of constant peace in Japan the demand for warriors, such as samurai greatly decreased during the shogun era. This left many people out of jobs and mostly samurai had to find a line of work in something else. But, in Edo the shogun was the only entity that kept a massive army for protection, and a massive migration of soldiers descended upon the city. For this reason many jobs became available for merchants, and artisans that were needed to help and supply the enormous amount of supplies that were being utilized in the great building (forts/castles) expansion that was occurring in Edo. Commoners began to stream into the city during the 1590 s, as Ieyasu promised his patronage to those who would help him construct his military headquarters and provision his warriors: armorers and smiths, lumber dealers and carpenters. 7 With all of these jobs that had been created by this migration the Japanese culture began seeing the emergence of a middle-class economic system tha t was mainly made up of these commoners that had gone to work in Edo. Even though this was a major break through in terms of equality among people the same customs and community hierarchy as in the imperial era stayed mostly the same. Each rank of the feudal hierarchy was allotted clearly defined limits above or below which it was impermissible to pass. The principle of knowing one s place was of paramount importance: it was the iron law of feudal ethics. Today, knowing one s place generally implies not rising above what is deemed appropriate. But during the Edo period, falling below one s station was also prohibited. This ethic and the social order that supported it were firmly established during the century that followed the founding of Edo. 8 The definite social structure of the Edo period was similar to what was found in the imperial periods. The whole concept of knowing one s place in society was followed closely and strictly by the governing bodies. A perfect example of is the instance of the ranking of the daimyo. Principles of warrior rule gove rned the rank or status of individuals and families in the feudal hierarchy. Rules were drawn up stipulating the forms a daimyo was required to follow. Social rank determined the shape and size of the daimyo s Edo residence, the scale of his processions, and the kind of vehicles, furnishings, and clothing he was allowed to use. Distinctions of feudal rank were displayed to be immediately visible. These included the colours and designs of clothing, styles of architecture and materials used in buildings and gardens, and the methods and ingredients employed in manufacturing various goods consumed by the warrior. 9 These social classifications were closely watched and to disgrace the social conduct presented by these rules would result in a demotion of the daimyo s status in the society. This held true even in the instance of the society status of the emperor compared to shogun. During the shogun era the power of the emperor was nothing. He was more seen as a symbol of Japanese culture and religion than an authoritative figure during this era. the powers the emperor delegated to the shogun were public, meaning that authority was to be exercised not in the private interest of the shogun and warrior estate but rather in a manner that contributed to the well-being of all of the people of the realm. 10 The whole meaning of it was to look out for the people of Japan rather than just the minority that ran it. This was clearly true as the shogun era progressed the emperor s duties were relegated to just ceremonies, and the separation of the Buddhist church influence in the politics of the country became a law. Toward the sovereign emperor and the aristocracy n Kyoto, for instance Ieyasu and his successors acted with appropriate deference, granting them sustenance lands and rebuilding long neglected palaces. But the shoguns also stationed a military governor in the ancient imperial capital.. Regulations concerning the Emperor and Court, which confined the emperor and nobility to a life of ceremonial and artistic pursuits. The same blend of coercion and patronage characterized the shogun s relationship with the Buddhist religious establishment. The policy of the Tokugawa shoguns was to keep the church fiscally dependent upon government and isolated from secular affairs. Thus the shogun s officials endowed important shrines and temples with landholdings sufficient to sustain them as religious centers, but in 1615 the government also announced a code that restricted priests to purely religious and ritual activities, and twenty years later it placed religious institutions under the careful purview of the commissioners of shrines and temples. 11 The shoguns policy towards the church and the imperial court was that they had no power over any policies and decisions made by the shogun government. There only reason was to be there as cultural symbols t o the people of Japan. Also, the reason that the shogun government worked was due to its foreign policies, towards the isolationism of Japan from the rest of the world. Through all of the social reform that the shogun era established probably the greatest achievement by this government was its isolationism from the outside world. During the opening decades of the seventeenth century, the Tokugawa shoguns prohibited Christianity and restricted foreign commerce to Chinese and Dutch traders at Nagasaki, thus ushering in the Pax Tokugawa two centuries of peace under a warrior government. 12 This stance on foreign relations was a great boost to the Japanese way of life. It made the country as a whole concentrate on what was going on inside the country rather than what was going on outside of Japan during the exploration and colonization period that occurred in most of the other continents. The fact that Japan as a country was cut off from the rest of the world allowed them to keep their culture strong. The conclusion of warfare and the beginning of the great Pax Tokugawa provided the shogun (and the regional daimyo as well) with an opportunity to convert their warrior corps into civilian administrators. 13 The time of peace allowed more people in the country to serve the government in other ways such as; farming, politics, blacksmith, etc. The military government provided by the shogun era brought about many changes to imperial Japan. It established a secure government that kept the culture and unity of the country as a whole, very strong. This was because of the great achievements that were made by this type of government, such as; long lasting peace to Japan, the great city of Edo (present day Tokyo), increased wealth and influence of the warrior social class, creation of a distinct social pattern, decreased power of the emperor/religion in the policies made by the government, and the isolationism of Japan which saved its culture from outside influence.

The Days Of The School Life Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1000 words

The Days Of The School Life - Essay Example Well, bullies usually feel good about their actions while the victims, on the other hand, are tied to the beliefs that they cannot escape this fate/bullying. I came to believe that this is what keeps bullying going at school and in other environments. While interventions are great, I know that from my experience that bullies are tied to social groups that crown these bullies with dominance and success. The society at large also believes in aggressive and controversial maneuvers as ways of achieving dominance and success. I believe that despite this, it is possible to end bullying. The best way to do this is to make bullies aware of their aggressive actions, and the pain the actions cause on their peers. In addition, victims should also be encouraged and made aware that change can always happen.Change in the bullying culture can be spearheaded by all of us. Even fourth graders can do it. Parents too can take part in effecting this change. We can all partner and promote campaigns again st bullying. These campaigns can allow kids and even adults who have once undergone bullying in their lives or are undergoing bullying to tell their stories so as to create awareness to everyone on the damaging effects of bullying, thus encourage them into taking action against this act. Young people can also hold meetups and discuss the impact of bullying, as well as create more solutions to bullying. The solution to bullying is a community-wide thing. Blaming bullies or being on their necks is not the way out of this problem.

The expansion of Civilization in South ans Southeast Asia Essay

The expansion of Civilization in South ans Southeast Asia - Essay Example ia that developed printing in China, health care information from Buddhists, and technological advancements in astronomy, mathematics, and linguistics. The Gupta Dynasty replaced the Kushans, wherein afterwards, Buddhism changed from being a way of life to other sub-branches of Buddhism. Buddhism branched out to Therevada Buddhism that asserted that they preserved the old teachings and that Buddhism is a way of life, and Mahayana Buddhism that taught Buddhism as a religion and that must be attained through both devotion and painstaking observance of proper behaviors. Buddhism became less popular in India probably because of the rise of competition in religions and its rejection of dominant cultural and socioeconomic Indian beliefs. The development of a revived Hinduism and the arrival of Islam increasingly became more popular than Buddhism. Buddhism also rejected the existence of a soul that opposed a dominant Indian spiritual belief. At the same time, Buddhism resisted social class definitions, which threatened the socioeconomic structure of India. Islam arrived at India through its eastward spread from the Arabian Peninsula during the seventh and eight centuries to Persia and the mountains of the Hindu Kush. After Indian pirates attacked an Arab ship near the Indus River, the Muslim ruler demanded an apology from the rule of Sind, a Hindu state, but the latter declined. Muslim forces attacked and conquered Sind in 711 and expanded to Punjab. Mahmud of Ghazni expanded the Islamic state in India from 997 to 1030 up to the upper Indus valley and far into the South of the Indian Ocean. Though subsequent Islamic rulers were not as successful as Ghazni in widening Islamic territories, the Muslim peoples established states there because Indians often warred with one another and were not as united as the Muslims due to the latter’s different religions and ethnicities. Islam changed Indian society in terms of religion by offering an alternative religion to Hinduism

Leadership and Change Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 3500 words

Leadership and Change - Essay Example From this discussion it is clear that  strong and effective leadership is the vital aspect of HRM required to manage the recent changes. Defining what makes a great leader is not a simple task. Leadership is an exceptionally complex phenomenon: the recent explosion of scholarly literature covering various aspects of leading and managing people is one logical outcome of this complexity. Despite huge amount of books and articles dedicated to the issue, there is still a great deal of ambiguity surrounding the true meaning of effective leadership in contemporary organizational environment.This study stresses that  absence of agreement between the scholars is partially due to different methods utilised to explore the phenomenon. partially due to varied purposes of defining leadership. and partially due to the variations in theoretical approaches. There are several major approaches in leadership studies: leadership as the focus of group processes, as personality attribute, as the art o f inducing compliance, as an exercise of influence, as a particular kind of act or behaviour, as a form of persuasion, as a power relationship, as an instrument of goal achievement, as an emerging effect of group interaction (`leadership exists when it is acknowledged or conferred by other members of the group), as a differentiated role, as the initiation or maintenance of role structure, or as some combination of all these approaches.  ... Despite huge amount of books and articles dedicated to the issue, there is still a great deal of ambiguity surrounding the true meaning of effective leadership in contemporary organizational environment. In psychology the phenomenon of leadership has traditionally been associated with in-group dynamics of social interactions. In any group, regardless of its size, members differ in their degree of social influence over one another: ... the person who exerts the most influence on the rest of the group thus affecting group beliefs and behaviour is usually addressed as leader'' (Hollander, 1985: 14). Although this definition of leadership allows the reader to grasp the essence of leadership, it is only one of the numerous of definitions that have been proposed in the existing literature (Northhouse, 2004). Absence of agreement between the scholars is partially due to different methods utilised to explore the phenomenon. partially due to varied purposes of defining leadership. and partially due to the variations in theoretical approaches. There are several major approaches in leadership studies: leadership as the focus of group processes, as personality attribute, as the art of inducing c ompliance, as an exercise of influence, as a particular kind of act or behaviour, as a form of persuasion, as a power relationship, as an instrument of goal achievement, as an emerging effect of group interaction (leadership exists when it is acknowledged or conferred by other members of the group), as a differentiated role, as the initiation or maintenance of role structure, or as some combination of all these approaches (Bass, 1990: 6-10). These various approaches may be a way of

Financial statement analysis Assignment Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1500 words

Financial statement analysis - Assignment Example The company aims at creating a great guest love hotel with over 6,76000 hundred rooms in approximate 4600 hotels in one hundreds countries (Intercontinental Hotel Group, 2013). Additionally, the directors report indicates that Intercontinental Hotel and Group provide employment to more than345, 000 people globally for instance, in 2011 the company provided employment opportunities to more than people 7,956 (Intercontinental Hotel Group, 2013). In above connection, the company owns nine brands of distinguished hotels in different countries. Additionally, Intercontinental Hotel and Resort consist of leisure and business hotels operating in more than sixty cities (Intercontinental Hotel Group, 2013). Connectively, the company operates in three basic ways namely; franchising, manager and owned/lease (Intercontinental Hotel Group, 2013). The company further operates an approximate of 3,934 hotels under franchise and 658 hotels under management mode of business operation (Intercontinental Hotel Group, 2013). Additionally, the company has placed a lot of emphasis on franchising mode of business operation (Intercontinental Hotel Group, 2013). ... orne hotel operate as a public limited company and reported a net operating income of one hundred and ninety nine million dollars as at 2011(Millennium Hotel and Resort, 2013). The comprehensive income statement indicates that the company had a net income of one hundred and sixty five million dollars by the end of 2011(Millennium Hotel and Resort, 2013).Connectively, the company operates via an inter-link of various portfolios as well as ensuring there is efficient cost control (Millennium Hotel and Resort, 2013). Connectively, the company operations are highly decentralized making it easier to respond to market demand. The company operates the following brands: Grand Millennium hotel, Capthorne and Kingsgate to name just but a few of the brands (Millennium Hotel and Resort, 2013). 2. Analyze the Operating profit margin (Intercontinental Hotels Group PLC is the main object of analysis, Millennium & Copthorne Hotels PLC is its rival firms, please contrast the two companies). Operating profit margin indicates the amount of revenues/income a company makes after paying its variable overheads (Warren, Reeve, Duchac & Warren, 2012). It is important to not that some items are excluded when computing operating profit margin among the items excluded are; good will amortization, interest to mention just but a few (Vasigh, Fleming & Mackay, 2010). Therefore, operating profit margin may be computed using the formula below; Operating profit margin= Income after tax ? Sales Based on comprehensive income statement for Intercontinental Hotel Group year ended 31st December 2011, 2010, 2009 and 2008 the operating profit margins were 0.29355, 0.2156, 0.171 and 0.19364 respectively (Intercontinental Hotel Group, 2013). This indicates that in 2011 operating profit margin was higher as

Experiecing art in person Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1000 words

Experiecing art in person - Essay Example Event title: Release Your Plans by Daniel Sprick, United States, 2001. Event Location: Denver Art Museum Event Date and Time: July 27 2012, at 10 a.m. Event Performers: Daniel Sprick Brief Description of event: This is an event that took place in the Denver Art Museum, entailing the presentation and discussion of the artwork, â€Å"Release Your Plans†, which was created by Daniel Sprick3. During the event, the students and other interested parties sat and observed the painting. This was followed by a presentation by Daniel Sprick, where he discussed the background of the painting, what motivated the creation of the painting, its essence and relevance as an artwork, as well as the discussion and demonstration of the different components that makes up the painting. The audience was then allowed an opportunity to ask questions to the presenter, who then answered them. After the presentation, the event was finally closed. The form/structure of the art The piece of art, â€Å"Rele ase Your Plans†, which was created by Daniel Sprick, is located in the 7th floor of the Denver Art Museum. ... However, there are several components that are conspicuously available. First, the most eye-catching aspect of the painting is that, while its name is simply â€Å"Release Your Plans†, there is another full message written on a different piece paper which is then hang behind the easel of the painting, with a full message, â€Å"Listen to your destiny, and when it calls, release your plans† 3. The other conspicuous component of the painting is the human skull, which has some pins in its eyes, and a mirror placed on a stand, which reflects the outside of the room, and it shows that the outside is more beautiful than the inside of the room. The painting also has a litter of kitchen trash, which includes some broken egg shell, a knife, broken pieces of bottles, as well as some cans, which are particularly displayed as very old2. Broken pieces of glasses are also shown on the floor of the room, which seems to be a kitchen. The other components of the painting are floating ob jects, which include a rose flower and a plate, possibly used as the clamp for the rose. There is also a rug on the floor and a piece of cigarette that lies next to the eggshell that is already broken. The skull, the bottle and the floating objects are the placed on top of a table, which is particularly peculiar, owing to the way it is wrapped with a white cloth that appears to be larger than necessary, thus it is folded on the lower side with some strings and embedded on the main stand of the table. There are also some dead cockroaches that are placed on the table top3. The narrative intent of the art The narrative intent of the art is to depict life in its natural form, in its truthfulness and in its good and bad realities. The

Parents who neglect their children due to methamphetamine addiction Assignment

Parents who neglect their children due to methamphetamine addiction - Assignment Example The new changes in the law clearly show that using or possessing methamphetamine in the presence of a child is child abuse under the abuse and neglect code. In addition, the same law extends to indicate that manufacturing methamphetamine in the presence of a child is felony (Doerner & Lab, 2012). If the mother is petitioned in the new law, it will not serve under the former but it will apply under the latter give that the mother allowed the drug to be manufactured by the boyfriend in the presence of the children and cause bodily harm to the infants. If the boyfriend if proved guilty because of the methamphetamine lab evidence, the mother is likely to bear the same penalties which in my case may be charges for felony. All the children will be withdrawn and placed under foster care (Reardon & Noblet, 2009). As the sole responsible adult to the 2, 5 and 7 year old children, the mother is actually a victim of the case. The mother owes the children a duty to care as a mother hence had the sole responsibility to guard the children against the violent boyfriend after consuming methamphetamine (Doerner & Lab, 2012). Incase the mother is not petitioned, the children according to the law must be kept safe by the department of Health and welfare which is responsible for keeping children safe. The services that the department will offer to the children are designed to assist in children protection while strengthening families to block abuse and neglect (Doerner & Lab, 2012). The department looks into the concerns, notifies the family while assessing the situation and offer services to reduce safety concerns. Among the concerns will be removing the child from the family until it is safe for them to be returned back (Pelton, 2001). According to the US department of Health and Human services, several states define how drug is used,

Deppression in older adults(community) Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1000 words

Deppression in older adults(community) - Essay Example This depression is not only painful for the person who experiences it, but also for the people existing in surroundings of this person. Gone is the time when treatment of this disease was unavailable, now the complete treatment and cure of the disease is accessible throughout the world. Many types of depression can affect the health of older adults. This mental illness changes the way the old people used to perceive feelings about their own selves and about their environment. This depression can affect the person in every walk of life, for minute aspects to the major ones. It induces the negative impacts not only in personal life of the old people but it also influence social, and office lives, as well to a great extent. Depression unlike mood disorders is a permanent feeling that just only gets worse if it goes untreated even for the life of the patient. There is no particular theory about the development of depression however; there are certain factors that can maximize the effects of depression. Researchers (Miller, pp. 11-13) showed that depression is a medical illness that is the effect of certain variations and instability in the chemistry of brain, these brain chemical agents known as neurotransmitters do help in regulation and controlling of moods. One of the most significant types of depression that occurs in older adults is the major depressive disorder. Studies have indicated that every one or two person out of the older adults having age of 65 above suffer from major depressive disorder. It may be possible that the older adults have the first attack of depression in their youth and then it returns back in the older age with greater intensity. There are two major symptoms of this kind of depression; one is the distressed moods and feelings for periods as long as two weeks and the other is the lacking or losing of interest or concern in

Food Cloning Essay Example for Free

Food Cloning Essay Food cloning is a very controversial topic to be discussed because of the large number of disagreements associated with it. Just like anything else in the world, it has positive and negative sides to it. The consumers all over the world only see the negative side. It is time that they now witness the benefits that cloned food brings along with it. This paper will outline these controversies and will describe how the media portrays them. It will also demonstrate the effect of food cloning on our culture, if there is any, and will highlight what this new technology can do for man’s future. Discussion Food cloning is basically obtaining food from cloned animals. How exactly does this work? It is as simple as this. Biotech companies clone animals such as cows, pigs and goats etc by taking the nuclei of cells from adults and combining them into other egg cells from which the nuclei have been extracted. Using this method, a large number of livestock have already been cloned for sale to producers (Reuters, 2003). The first cloned animal that was ever produced was a sheep in 1997. Since then, this technology has become more common and common with time. Because of this reason, the Food and Drug Authority asserted its control over cloning (Patel Rushefsky, 2002). Food cloning is a controversial topic since the time cloning of animals was introduced in 1997. Consumer groups all over the world want authorities to look in ethical and moral issues that are associated with cloning. People are not accepting this new technology and the benefits that come with it for a variety of reasons and controversies. The controversies largely have to do with the degree of safety of the meat, milk and other food products that are obtained from these cloned animals. Why is safety an issue? The answer to this question is obvious. Man is once again trying to intervene with nature and this may not give out the best results because man is subject to errors. Therefore, man will never be able to produce or reproduce animals and food products exactly like the ones present naturally with the help of science and technology and this difference is the main health concern of authorities all over the world. Another reason why cloned food is considered unsafe is that cloned animals usually have higher death rate, low life expectancy and are more prone to diseases (Poulter, 2008). Other safety issues that are considered to pose include the possibility of causing allergic reactions in human and unexpected genetic effects, altering of significant nutrients that are required, containing higher level of toxicants, reducing the effects of antibiotics, and others (Gralla, Gralla, 2004). After the famous Mary Shelly’s story in which she creates a Frankenstein, people have started to associate cloned animals with that as well. They fear that just like the Frankenstein turned against its creator, the food products obtained from cloned animals may also back fire. They think that just like the Frankenstein turned out to be harmful, cloned food products will also turn out to be harmful. Because of these health concerns, consumers all over are getting worried and concerned regarding whether of not the food products they are having are cloned or not. According to a source, companies now want their produced food products to be labeled as â€Å"clone free† so that their consumers can buy and consume food products without having to worry about safety issues. We can take the example of Ben and Jerry’s. Because of this non acceptance of the consumers, Ben and Jerry’s which is a popular ice cream producing company want to ensure their customers through media that the ice cream they produce comes from normal cows and not clones (The Associated Press, 2008). The media has a huge role to play in this. It made the debate regarding food cloning very open and all the concerns were right there in front of the consumers. Despite being confirmed as safe by the government, cloned food will not be accepted by consumers. However, the reality may be a lot different from this perception that the general public has regarding cloned food. Various legal authorities have given a green light to the use of cloned food as they consider it safe. These include the government, scientists and agencies like the Food and Drug Administration are using media to affirm the fact that there is no difference in food products from cloned animals and from conventional livestock. Stephen F. Sundlof, director of the Food and Drug Administration Center for Veterinary Medicine announced that â€Å"meat and milk from cattle, swine and goat clones is as safe to eat as the food we eat every day,† Both cloned and natural foods are equally safe and this also goes for the food obtained from off springs of cloned animals (The Associated Press, 2008). They say that there is nothing in the world that is completely natural, therefore there is no reason to stop when it comes to food and not use science and technology to use ways in which abundant food can be made available and that too at better quality. An example of potatoes is given. It is said that potatoes are not edible in their natural form as they are poisonous. Only after selective breeding, they are made edible (Crompton, 2007). Another point put forward to counter the argument of cloned animals being more prone to diseases and having a lower expectancy age is that the milk and meat obtained from cloned animals while they are healthy and alive will not harm the consumers in any way. Therefore there is no reason to be scared to consume such foods. The government and agencies like FDA have confirmed the safety of the foods but still the businesses are not ready to use cloned animals for their products. They fear that if they use such animals, they will have to label their products as ‘cloned’ and because of this people will not go for this product. However, their fear is logical because people are not ready as yet. We are living in a world where the population is increasing at a very rapid exponential rate. This increasing population will eventually demand food and the rate at which we are using up all our resources, it is predicted that very soon man will not have a lot to eat. We need to find better and newer ways which enable that we have abundant food supply for everyone in the world. Biotechnology is a new field that has been grown because of this. Cloned food is something that has been developed as a result. There were health concerns in the past regarding cloned food, but since now the government and other authorities like FDA have confirmed the safety of food obtained from cloned animals, we consumers must learn to accept it as in near future, this food will become a necessity and out only option. Conclusion In conclusion, I would once again like to emphasize on the need to accept such technologies. Food cloning was considered unsafe in the past because it is something new. Everything new has to go through a testing stage until it can be made ready to use. Similarly, food cloning has undergone the testing stage and it is now safe and ready to use. It is no longer the Frankenstein that it was once considered and because of this it has been made legal all over the world. References The Associated Press (2008) Cloned food may prompt ‘clone-free’ labels. Retrieved, 4 Oct, 2008, from MSNBC. Web site: http://www. msnbc. msn. com/id/16383458/ Crompton, S. (2007) Frankenstein’s monsters or the future of food? Retrieved, 4 Oct, 2008, from Times Online. Web site: http://women. timesonline. co. uk/tol/life_and_style/women/body_and_soul/article1461151. ece Gralla, J. D. Preston Gralla (2004) Complete Idiots Guide to Understanding Cloning. Alpha Books. Patel, K. Mark E. Rushefsky (2002) Health Care Policy in an Age of New Technologies. M. E. Sharpe. Poulter, S (2008) EU gives green light for cloned food to go on sale in UK shops. Retrieved, 4 Oct, 2008, from Daily Mail Online. Web site: http://www. dailymail. co. uk/health/article-507700/EU-gives-green-light-cloned-food-sale-UK-shops. html Reuters (2003) Cloned Food OK by FDA. Retrieved, 4 Oct, 2008, from Wired. Web site: http://www. wired. com/techbiz/media/news/2003/10/61038